MALDIVES INSTABILITY

     

Emergency in Maldives and its impact on the India-Maldives relationship                       

                                                                Aachal Burande

           

             Maldives is one of the important island in the Indian ocean especially in Arabian sea. It is situated near Lakshyadweep Island. Maldives was in discussion from last one decade mainly because increasing sea level due to climate change. It is estimated that Maldives will be underwater till the end of this century. Another issue is raising in Maldives which is related to Maldivian politics is the emergency issued by President Abdul Yameen. Instability in its internal politics was became a issue from 2012.

           

In Maldives, first democratic elections were held in 2008. 30 years before there was the one-sided dictatorship of Abdul Gayum. Even citizens of Maldives were also got reed of his dictatorship. In 2008, Mohammad Nasheed won the elections from the Democratic Party of Maldives and became the president. He was the first who became president by democratic way in the history of Maldives. But after 4 years of rule, he gave orders to arrest one of the Judge under the accused of corruption in 2012. After this decision, military opposed him & it resulted in the resignation of President Nasheed. Again elections held in 2013, Abdul Yameen became the president. President Yameen accused Nasheed as he misused his powers to arrest judge but it proved false after a year and he was free from prison. Further again, under the anti terrorism act he got imprisoned.    

             Recently Abdul Yameen declared emergency on 5^th February, 2018 due to deepening political crisis. The main reason was the controversy between Judiciary and President. Few hours after the emergency declared, Top most judge of Supreme court was arrested and after giving decision, President refused to comply with the court’s decision & to release political prisoners who had arrested. Further, emergency extended for more 15 days with no reason. He also didn’t implemented the orders that revoked terrorism charges against nine leading opposition figures including the country’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Nasheed, who is now in exile. If he implemented the orders of court, there will be majority in the opposition and it leads to fall of Yameen’s government.

             India is closely watching the crisis. The reason behind is that Maldives is the home of almost 22,000 Indians. Approximately, there are 125 doctors are Indians from 400 doctors. 25% teachers are from India. Again, it is the important island India from the security point of view. Indian ocean hosts more than 40states. More than 97% of India’s international trade by volume and 75% by value passes through the Indian Ocean. Secure sea lanes are crucial for India. Weakened Maldives could prove harmful in extremism & religious fundamentalism, piracy for security of Delhi.

        China is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Maldives though it opened an embassy in the island nation only in 2011. The archipelago nation is the only Saarc country, other than Pakistan, to have a free trade pact with China. President Xi Jingping’s visit gave a big push to the ties. he is also planning to build ‘Marritime Silk root’ to increase its influence in the Asian trade. in this root, maldive swill play very important role. as Nasheed made good relations with India but it was problematic for China. China was aiming to build a navigator bottom on Marao island & Yameen was helping China. That time, America intervened and China’s navigator stopped bottom. Otherwise it was very dangerous for Indian Naval securities. This is the main reason behind the imprisonment of Nasheed. China is trying to make its in the Indian Ocean. He made many naval stations in Srilanka. Now it is on the path towards Maldives. 

            Even India visited all nations of SAARC excepting Maldives. PM Narendra Modi didn’t visit yet after the request of Maldives. It is said that, India had pressure by America. But if China sails with this opportunity in Maldives, it may get close with Maldives. China had also signed treaty of FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with Maldives. The biggest lone Maldives had taken till now, is from China. So it is compulsion for them to maintain good relations with China. Similarly, it is puissant for India to maintain its relations with Maldives. Mohammad Nasheed asked for help to India tweeting that like in 1988, India have to intervene with military forces to save the democracy of Maldives. But now the question arises, will India step up towards Maldives or not?